The Dunning-Kruger Effect is crazy. Imagine someone who knows little about something, but yet, they actually believe they are far more competent at it. They make confident but uninformed predictions in sports betting. For example, many beginners place bets with complete certainty. They believe that they have road-tested the system or cracked some secret to… Continue reading Dunning-Kruger Effect in Sports Betting Predictions
Month: June 2025
Risk Curves: Aligning Entertainment vs Profit Goals
Every player sits somewhere on the spectrum between playing for fun and playing for profit. Risk curves describe how much volatility you tolerate relative to the reward you seek. By mapping your goals to a risk curve, you can set stakes, session length, and game choice with more clarity—and fewer leaks. What a risk curve… Continue reading Risk Curves: Aligning Entertainment vs Profit Goals